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Written by Richard Mellor
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I'm sure everyone has noticed that any resistance to the US invasion
and occupation of Iraq is now described as "Al Qaida" fighters do this
and "Al Qaida" fighters do that.
I'm sure everyone has noticed that any resistance to the US invasion and occupation of Iraq is now described as "Al Qaida" fighters do this and "Al Qaida" fighters do that. There was an attack in Iraq today and the US media reports it as an attack by "Al Qaida forces." The US media, one of the least "free" in the industrial democracies, is hammering home the war against "terrorism". Of course, this is an absurd concept as terrorism is a tactic. How can you declare war on a tactic?
But it is laughable these days except among those who still have not pulled the blinders off (not an insignificant minority) to even attempt to define this murderous assault by the two most powerful armies in history on a weak third world nation as anything else. The weapons thing is now seen for what it was, a lie. Even the thugs in the white house have abandoned that argument as their domestic supporters abandon ship. Greenspan has admitted the truth that this war was one for a commodity, oil. He has also launched in to an attack on the imbecile Bush.
Things are most likely about to change as Iran becomes the new bogeyman, the threat that has to be destroyed in the name of freedom. It seems increasingly likely that the Bush regime will attack Iran, a venture that will have severe consequences throughout the planet. Mind you, Bush and co don't care about that and their children will be the most insulated from its repercussions, but it does seem increasingly likely, as the forces behind Bush are not comfortable leaving office doing nothing about a nuclear powered Iran. The recent Israeli bombing in Syria, an Axis of Evil member, is thought to be a trial run for an attack on Iran. Israel, confident that the US will supply the, money, weapons and cannon fodder in the form of its workers if they're needed, feels confident it can bomb or invade any country with impunity.
I spoke to two young men in their late teens this last week, one working at Trader Joe's and the other the son of a neighbor. They both genuinely thought that the invasion of Iraq was because it attacked New York. No one makes this argument seriously but these guys still thought that. When I explained that Iraq had nothing to do with the terrorist attacks, one guy asks, "Well what is the war about then?" He was at work so we exchanged a few words and I gave him some reading material but it shows how successful the big business media and their mouthpieces in some of the right wing religious institutions have been in duping the populace.
Whether the U.S. attacks Iran or not, US capitalism is mired in crisis. Bourgeois strategists are writing about the need for the candidates in the upcoming election to abandon the traditional "politics of happiness" approach and recognize reality. Christopher Caldwell of the Financial Times is pleased that there is a change for the better among many of their present candidates: "The people shooting for the highest office this time, whether they approve of the war in Iraq or not, are speaking in tones of gloom unprecedented in a presidential campaign.", he writes. (1) The less myopic European bourgeois recognize, as Democratic candidate, Barak Obama explained on the Today show, that the present U.S. course "is unsustainable"."
"The moral to be drawn from the quagmire of Iraq", writes Phillip Stephens, "is that the ability to conquer does not confer the capacity to control." (2) How true. A lesson can be learned here from British Imperialism's occupation in Northern Ireland. Stephens points out that even many Iranians still consider themselves pro-American, this despite the aggressive stance of the Bush administration and the overthrow of the Democratic secular government of Mossadegh by the U.S. government in 1953. After 911, one million Iranians came on to the streets of Iran in a show of sympathy and support for America. For the more astute bourgeois, the Bush crowd has wasted opportunity after opportunity. Stephens adds, "Separate out the animus toward the persona and policies of George W. Bush and the U.S. is also still quite liked. Odd though it seems, most Iranians declare themselves pro American." But an Iraq pullout is impossible for U.S. imperialism. This will be seen as a tremendous defeat for them and embolden forces fighting the capitalist offensive throughout the world. The Democratic Party as a whole recognizes this and it limits their efforts at pretending they have an alternative.
On top of this, the U.S. economy is being drained through its military ventures at a time when there has been a collapse in credit and the housing market. The level of integration of the global economy is evident in that a relatively small sector of the housing market, the subprime, has caused bankruptcies in Germany and a bail out of Britain's fifth largest bank by the Bank of England, Northern Rock. Northern Rock, had no direct involvement in the subprime which also shows the level of integration of world finance capital.
International capital has also started to withdraw from dollar holdings threatening the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. The dollar has fallen significantly in relation to its rivals, which, although increasing exports in relation to imports, is threatening the U.S standard of living that is based on borrowed money. U.S. consumer spending is 70% of the economy and any slowing here increases the chance of a world recession.
Talking with a friend this morning, we both agreed that there is extreme volatility in the world economy and it cannot be ruled out that social crisis could emerge on any front. There could be a significant and uncontainable crisis among U.S. troops who are already at their limit. The world economy could sink in to recession adding to an already significant anti-capitalist offensive, particularly in Latin America, but China will at some point experience major offensives on the part of the working class and in the US itself, the labor leadership will not be able to hold back the organized working class forever, at some time the damn will burst.
Bush and co care nothing about this. They have god on their side and a place in heaven reserved for them alongside Bin Laden, and they will most likely stoke the fire.
It is impossible to say when and where a break in the situation will come. What is certain is that the mood and euphoria that followed the collapse of the Stalinist regime and the tech boom is over. U.S. capitalism is in decline and, threatened by the rising Chinese, Indian and Russian economies. while still the world's superpower, the ability of U.S. capitalism to impose its will unchallenged has been curtailed over the past period.
There are interesting times ahead.
Richard Mellor
AFSCME Local 444, retired
9-16-07
(1) A Hopeful End To Optimism. Financial Times, 9-16-07
(2) Amid The Rubble of Iraq, How to Save the American Leadership FT 9-16-07
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